Well, my record for Pro Tour speculation is now 0-2. Match over. Looking back I can see some of the critical mistakes made.
My first mistake was a lack of focus. As with any Magic game this put me at an immediate disadvantage. My lack of understanding of the format and inability to sell on time cost me dearly. This pro tour was different than the last in several ways. Many of the cards that made the biggest impact were from the newest sets. This was a challenge for me and was affected by my previously poor outing with the pro-tour. I decided not to invest in any cards from the newest set as they were just to volatile. This kept me from having the same massive loss from one card as I did last time. However, this did not change my end result.
What I find most interesting about some of my speculations is cards that made it into the top 8 in reasonable numbers (Tireless Tracker, Sylvan Advocate, Lumbering Falls) each took significant drops this week with Sylvan Advocate leading the bunch. Sorin also saw a drop even as a card in the tournament winning deck. I feel some of this is an over reaction to the spiking protour prices and some of these cards may be worth picking up. But, alas, I did not sell before the drop with severely limits my gain potential. This leads me to my second failure.
Missed triggers. Missed triggers can be killer, they do not seem like a big deal at the time, but as the game goes on those small incremental advantages you give your opponents add up. I failed to sell at the peak of the Pro Tour pricing, which was probably Saturday or Sunday evening. Come Monday night my portfolio had tanked to around 424 tix from its peak of about 473. This was a significant loss and very discouraging. Tuesday morning it sprang back to life and reached 459, this was still a loss, but much more tolerable. So I resolved to sell on Tuesday. By the time I got home yesterday evening my portfolio had once again tanked and is currently sitting at 372. Mind you, each of these are buy list prices not what I can realistically expect to sell for.
The final mistake I am hoping to avoid is the dreaded tilt. We are coming down to the last few weeks of this tournament and part of me wants to just stick with my specs and ride them out. Being this far behind and doing so poorly on the Pro Tour is definitely discouraging. But I will push forward! I will continue to make new speculations and hopefully continue to build upon my mistakes to possibly end this battle with some honor.
My main Pro Tour speculations were based on format staples that were currently under priced leading into the protour. A few of them were as follows:
Overall I don’t think most of my heavy speculations were too off target. I just didn’t get out quick enough and some of the oddities regarding the older cards doomed me to a loss. Hopefully some of the cards will pick up this weekend and I will be able to get out closer to my 460 than the 370 where I currently sit.